A Stronger Third Quarter, and a Cleaner Read on the Market
The third quarter of 2026 closed with 144 sales across Canmore, up 30% from the 111 recorded in Q3 2025. September did much of the heavy lifting: 54 sales, the strongest month of the quarter and nearly double September 2025’s 29.
Quarter over quarter, the headline looks like a step back. Q1 posted 166 sales and Q2 posted 181, so 144 reads as a slowdown. It isn’t. The first half of the year was inflated by new project releases in the short-term rental segment, where large batches of sales landed in single months. Strip those out and Q3 was the best residential quarter of 2026.
Inventory is the other story this month. Active listings climbed to 205 by early October, the highest level of the year. But as with most things in this market, the detail matters more than the headline.
Q3 by the Numbers: Residential Carried the Quarter
Residential sales (detached, townhome, and apartment condo combined) totalled 112 in Q3, up 42% from 79 in Q3 2025. Every residential segment was ahead of last year:
• Detached & Semi-Detached: 35 vs. 27 (up 30%)
• Townhomes: 42 vs. 27 (up 56%)
• Apartment Condos: 35 vs. 25 (up 40%)
• Residential Total: 112 vs. 79 (up 42%)
Short-term rentals came in at 29 sales against 27 a year ago, up 7%. Total sales for the quarter were 144 vs. 111.
Compare that with the last time we ran this quarterly exercise. In Q2, headline volume looked strong while every residential category sat below the prior year. Q3 is the reverse: residential did the work, and the short-term rental segment simply returned to normal.
Why Earlier Quarters Skew the Comparison
Short-term rental sales over the past four quarters tell the story on their own: 87 in Q4 2025, 71 in Q1 2026, 67 in Q2, and 29 in Q3. The first three were driven by new project releases, including a single project that accounted for 48 of February’s 80 total sales and the Dead Man’s Flats release that produced 30 of June’s 40 short-term rental sales.
Short-term rentals made up 43% of all Canmore sales in Q1 and 37% in Q2. In Q3 they were 20%. That shift is why total sales fell 20% from Q2 to Q3 even as residential sales edged up from 111 to 112.
The takeaway: Q3 is the first quarter in a year where the headline number reflects the underlying market rather than a launch schedule.
September: The Strongest Month of the Quarter
September’s 54 sales were up 42% from August’s 38 and up 86% from September 2025’s 29.
• Detached & Semi-Detached: 12 sales, double last September’s 6. Median sale price $1,850,000, up 9% year over year.
• Apartment Condos: 13 sales vs. 8 a year ago. Median sale price $813,000, up 16%.
• Townhomes: 13 sales vs. 10 a year ago. Median sale price $1,025,000, down 9% from last September and down from August’s $1,190,000.
• Short-Term Rentals: 13 sales, up from 7 in August and 4 last September. Median sale price $787,500, essentially flat year over year.
Residential sales reached 38 in September, up 58% from 24 a year ago. That lines up with what we noted last month: fall is one of the busiest selling seasons in the Bow Valley, second only to spring.
Inventory: At the High for the Year, but Not Evenly
Active listings sat at 205 in early October, up from 194 a month earlier and up 30% from January’s 158. That is the highest total of 2026.
Two points of context are worth adding:
The increase is concentrated in one segment. Short-term rental listings jumped from 32 to 52 in a single month, the highest count in more than two years and up 73% from last October’s 30. This is the natural cycle for these properties: owners keep them working through the summer rental season and bring them to market as it winds down. Residential listings moved the other way, slipping from 149 to 141.
Residential supply is tighter than it was a year ago. Total listings are slightly below last October’s 213, and the residential portion is down 18% (141 vs. 172):
• Detached & Semi-Detached: 63 listings, down from 66 last month and 68 a year ago
• Apartment Condos: 46 listings, down from 51 last month and 54 a year ago
• Townhomes: 32 listings, unchanged from last month and down 36% from 50 a year ago
• Short-Term Rentals: 52 listings, up from 32 last month and 30 a year ago
So inventory is rising, largely for seasonal reasons, and buyers of short-term rental property now have considerably more to choose from. Buyers looking for a townhome do not.
Pricing and Time on Market
Quarterly pricing was firm across the board. Median sale prices for Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025:
• Detached & Semi-Detached: $1,875,000 vs. $1,728,000 (up 9%)
• Townhomes: $1,052,450 vs. $992,000 (up 6%)
• Apartment Condos: $754,750 vs. $689,600 (up 9%)
• Short-Term Rentals: $850,500 vs. $802,000 (up 6%)
Homes took longer to sell, though. Average days on market rose in every segment: detached 68 days (39 a year ago), townhomes 55 (47), apartment condos 84 (55), and short-term rentals 53 (40). More sales at higher prices, but with buyers taking their time, is consistent with what we see day to day: well-priced, well-presented homes sell, and buyers are not rushing.
Year to Date
January through September, with lots set aside as too small a sample:
Residential — 2026 vs. 2025: - Detached & Semi-Detached: 109 vs. 111 - Apartment Condos: 93 vs. 82 - Townhomes: 115 vs. 100 - Residential Total: 317 vs. 293 (up 8%)
Short-Term Rentals: 167 vs. 102 (up 64%), still largely a product of the February and June project releases.
Total Sales: 491 vs. 402 (up 22%)
After a first half in which residential sales trailed last year, a strong third quarter has put the residential market clearly ahead for 2026.
What It Means for Buyers and Sellers
Sellers: Demand through Q3 was stronger than a year ago in every residential segment, and residential supply is lower than last fall. Townhome sellers are in the strongest position, with about 2.5 months of inventory. Detached sellers face more competition at roughly 5.5 months, and longer days on market mean pricing and presentation still decide which homes move.
Buyers: Selection in short-term rental property is the best it has been in over two years. Detached and apartment condo buyers still have reasonable choice, though less than a month ago. Townhome buyers should expect competition for well-priced listings.
On the broader backdrop, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% in September, with the next announcement on October 28. Canada’s foreign buyer ban is still scheduled to expire January 1, 2027, and what replaces it has not been settled.
Q3 2026 Market Snapshot
• Total Sales (Q3): 144 vs. 111 in Q3 2025 (up 30%)
• Residential Sales (Q3): 112 vs. 79 (up 42%)
• Short-Term Rental Sales (Q3): 29 vs. 27 (up 7%)
• Total Sales (September): 54 vs. 29 (up 86%)
• Active Listings (All Types, early October): 205, the high for 2026
• Detached & Semi-Detached Inventory: ~5.5 months
• Apartment Condominium Inventory: ~3.9 months
• Townhouse Inventory: ~2.5 months
• Short-Term Rental Inventory: ~2.5 months on September’s listings; ~4.0 on October’s
• YTD Residential Sales: 317 vs. 293 (up 8%)
• Overall Market Condition: Balanced, with residential demand ahead of last year and new supply concentrated in short-term rentals
If you’re considering buying or selling real estate in Canmore, Banff, Harvie Heights, Dead Man’s Flats, Exshaw, or Lac des Arcs, the segment you’re in matters more than the headline. A local Canmore Realtor who tracks these numbers month to month can help you price and time your move.
