Canmore Real Estate Market Overview 2024: Key Insights and 2025 Outlook
Throughout 2024, the Canmore real estate market has demonstrated resilience and dynamism. Below is a summary of our market updates, highlighting trends and insights from each quarter, along with considerations for 2025.
December 2024: Trends, Prices & Insights
As the year concludes, the market maintains robust activity across various property types. Key observations include:
Year-Over-Year Trends:
· Residential sales slightly decreased to 26 in November 2024 from 29 in November 2023.
· Residential listings increased to 127 from 114, offering more options for buyers.
· Short-term rental property listings rose to 35 in December 2024, up from 33 in December 2023.
Pricing Insights:
· Average prices for detached and semi-detached homes declined due to a higher volume of entry-level and mid-range sales.
· The highest sale in November was $2,295,000, and the lowest was $895,000.
· Despite monthly fluctuations, the three-month year-over-year trend indicates overall price appreciation.
Market Balance:
· Strong demand across most property segments keeps the market balanced or slightly favoring sellers.
· Low inventory levels contribute to price stability, even as the market enters the typically slower winter months.
November 2024: Rising Prices and Seasonal Trends
Entering late fall, the Canmore real estate market exhibited notable activity:
Sales and Inventory:
· October saw a robust increase in sales, both year-over-year and month-over-month.
· Active listings declined month-over-month in early November, following typical seasonal patterns.
· Short-term rental listings experienced a slight uptick, indicating sustained interest in investment properties.
Pricing Trends:
· Detached and semi-detached homes led the market in sales and pricing, reflecting strong buyer demand.
· Average and median sale prices continued to rise, showcasing the appeal of Canmore’s mountain lifestyle and limited housing inventory.
Market Dynamics:
· Inventory levels across detached homes, townhouses, and short-term rentals leaned towards a seller’s market, especially during peak demand seasons.
· Limited supply, coupled with high buyer interest, maintained elevated prices, providing sellers with a significant advantage.
Q3 2024: Record High Prices & Inventory Trends
The third quarter marked significant milestones in the Canmore and Bow Valley real estate market:
Record-High Prices:
· Average sale prices for detached and semi-detached homes exceeded $2 million for the first time, reaching $2,166,747.
· This milestone is largely due to strong sales in the luxury segment, attracting interest from local, national, and international buyers.
Inventory Levels:
· Active listings increased compared to previous quarters, moving towards a more balanced market.
· Despite this increase, overall inventory remained below pre-pandemic levels, keeping the market competitive and favorable for sellers.
Sales Trends:
· Detached and semi-detached homes sold faster than other property types, given the heightened demand and limited inventory in this segment.
· The townhouse and apartment condo segments also showed positive price appreciation, albeit at a slower pace.
Fall 2024: Market Shifts and Opportunities
As fall settled in, the market experienced increased activity:
Inventory Increase:
· Active inventory rose to 178 listings, up from 140 at the same time last year, moving towards a more balanced market.
· Despite this rise, inventory remained 19% below the five-year average and 20% below the ten-year average.
Pricing Norms:
· The cost of developable land and rising construction expenses established new pricing norms for homes in Canmore.
· In August, the average price for detached and semi-detached homes was $2,399,863, with a median price of $2,219,450.
Buyer Demand:
· Strong demand persisted across all property types, whether for primary residences or weekend retreats.
· Buyers from Alberta and beyond continued to seek the unique mountain lifestyle that the Bow Valley offers.
2025 Outlook: Factors Influencing the Canmore Real Estate Market
Looking ahead, several factors are poised to impact the Canmore real estate market in 2025:
Livability Tax Implementation:
· The Town of Canmore has introduced a vacancy tax, known as the Livability Tax Program, targeting non-primary residences.
· Set at an additional 0.4% of assessed property value, this tax aims to collect approximately $12 million annually in 2025 and 2026, dedicated to housing initiatives in the community.
· The tax is designed to incentivize long-term residents and full-time use of residential units, potentially affecting property values and market dynamics.
New Developments in Canmore and Banff:
Three Sisters Village:
· The first phase of the Three Sisters Village development is set to commence, aiming to add between 700 and 1,075 residential units.
· These units are anticipated to be available for occupancy by 2026, contributing significantly to the local housing supply.
Palliser Trail Area Structure Plan:
· The Palliser Trail area is undergoing planning for future development, with an Area Structure Plan (ASP) in progress.
· This development is expected to introduce a mix of residential and commercial properties, enhancing the community's infrastructure.
Silvertip Resort:
· Silvertip Resort is planning expansions, including new residential units and amenities, aimed at attracting both residents and tourists.
· These developments are expected to enhance property values in the surrounding areas.
Banff Housing Initiatives:
· Banff has approved changes in land use bylaws to increase housing stock, with applications for 105 net new units since the changes.
· This increase in housing availability may influence the real estate market in neighboring Canmore.
Alberta Economic Forecast:
· According to ATB Financial's latest economic outlook, Alberta's real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.5% in 2024 and improve further to 2.8% in 2025, significantly outpacing the national economy.
· This economic growth is expected to positively impact the real estate market, with increased investment and consumer confidence.
· However, households will continue to feel the lingering effects of past interest rate hikes and inflation, which may constrain growth in consumer spending.
These factors collectively suggest a dynamic year ahead for Canmore's real estate market, with potential opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Staying informed about these developments will be crucial for making strategic decisions in 2025.
