As fall settles in, the real estate market in Canmore and the Bow Valley is seeing increased activity, with more properties coming to market over the past few weeks. Active inventory currently sits at 178 listings, up from 140 at the same time last year. While this rise is moving us toward a more balanced market, it's important to note that current inventory is still 19% below the five-year average and 20% below the ten-year average. These figures are not adjusted for the overall increase in housing stock over the years.
The historical data tells a compelling story of the Canmore and Bow Valley real estate market. From 2002 to the present, active listings (blue bars) and sales (orange line) have followed a clear seasonal pattern. Typically, listings peak in the summer and early fall, while sales fluctuate throughout the year. Post-2020, we've seen a shift where inventory levels remain lower than historical averages, even as sales show sharp fluctuations. This ongoing supply-demand imbalance continues into 2024, with buyers competing over limited inventory, a trend we've seen consistently over the past few years.
August, however, brought slower sales activity, with only 33 transactions, compared to July’s 64. This drop is largely attributed to a significant decline in short-term rental unit sales. Despite this, with another rate cut by the Bank of Canada and Alberta’s continued positive net migration, we anticipate a strong fall market ahead.
Luxury home sales have been particularly robust, with several notable transactions over the summer. The highest sale reached $5,700,000 for a single-family home on a 20,000 sqft lot overlooking the Larch Islands. There were also four sales above $3,000,000. With the cost of developable land and rising construction expenses, these price points are becoming the new norm for homes in Canmore. In August, the average price for detached and semi-detached homes was $2,399,863, while the median price stood at $2,219,450.
Demand remains strong across all types of properties, whether for primary residences or weekend retreats. Buyers from Alberta and beyond continue to seek the unique mountain lifestyle that the Bow Valley offers. Our market comprises multiple sub-segments, most of which are currently shifting between a seller’s market and a balanced market. However, with more properties hitting the market, some areas are beginning to trend towards a buyer’s market.
As we move further into the fall season, both buyers and sellers will find opportunities in this dynamic and evolving market.
